Well I want to know what he will change because I think America is great as it is.
For those of you that know me, you know the things I love the most…Eastern North Carolina, my parents house, frequent road trips through the coastal south east, spending my summer at Atlantic Beach, and—last but not least—Miami, Florida. Then there are the superficial, expensive tastes…theory sweaters, trovata shirts, men’s jewelry, John Varvatos shoes, designer jeans (and not the ones everyone’s starting wear, i mean the real stuff). I also really like going to the movies, eating outdoors, grilling out, and ice cream with candy.
Honestly, I don’t want any of that stuff to change. And I’m sure you’ll say that it won’t, but the question remains: what will?
Though I don’t make a million dollars in salary (yet), I really, really like my job and I’m not at all envious of people that do make this much…or more—rather they be CEOs making $10 million that democrats hate or celebrities making $150 million that democrats worship.
Just as I don’t resent these people, I don’t pity those making $15,000 – 20,000. It wasn’t long ago that I made about half that much. I slept on a single mattress (on the floor) and shared a bedroom with two other people. We decorated the walls with posters made from copy-machine-enlarged cd covers, photos of live bands, quotes from The Fountainhead, and a map of Epoct Center. I wore the same jeans and tshirts just about everyday. I had a pair of Converse All-Stars, flip-flops, and running shoes. We surfed and played music daily. We stayed up most of the night. We road tripped up and down the coast and partied in all the hipster bars—from the LES to the Design District. My girlfriend was sappy sweet, smart, sophisticated, absolutely beautiful, rich, and could have dated someone cuter with much more money than me. But she didn’t. She was stoked on me, my mattress, the helios choir, and the fact that I loved the beach, the summer, and punk rock music. We were all STOKED.
Further, I also don’t pity those that live on government welfare in the ghetto. These folks are well taken care of. Every time I’m in the grocery store behind one of the 26.4 million people paying with food stamps, I notice that they have a functioning pair of legs and arms as well as functioning hands, feet, and eyes. They can work enough technology to use their EBT card; and they are savvy enough to try to cut in front of me in line. They are also usually talking on a cell phone…or have one close in hand. I could cite hundreds of such anecdotal tales. When I lived in Coconut Grove, I used to argue with this one panhandler that I wasn’t going to give him any money because he had a bike and I didn’t.
America is running just fine. A society of 300 million people will always have many problems—the three or four that are in vogue around election season don’t contradict the fact that America is the best country in the world and an awesome place to live. You know you think this and love it.
Then there is the economy. A lot of people have been talking about the economy...The economy will go up and down. After all, we live in a socialized, mixed economy and a volatile business cycle is the consequence of living without lassiez-faire capitalism. When I ride down the road, there are still thousands of cars and it’s still hard to find parking spots close to the door when I go to the grocery store or the mall. So…people are doing business and spending money. (I say that with utmost humility for the people that are feeling the brunt of the bad economy and feel fortunate to have what I have. I’m just trying to put the good in perspective here.)
My proposition:
If someone writes to me with 5 import matters Obama will change starting in 10 months (more than enough time for “radical” range) and said proposals actually come to fruition, I will give you one thousand of my dollars. If they don’t change, you do NOT have to give me $1,000. I’m that confident in my position. That is, confident enough to offer a full-risk-to-me, no-risk-to-you bet.
Here are the conditions:
- The changes you propose must be improvements—anyone can bring about negative changes.
- You must state specifics—that is, what will change specifically and how it will change from Obama’s policy.
- Example 1: You cannot merely declare “The economy will get better.” This will happen regardless of who is President because of the business cycle. You must say which of Obama’s policies will accelerate the cycle.
- Example 2: You cannot merely claim, “The troops will come home from Iraq sooner”. Chances are they will be coming home regardless. You must say when (approximate) and which of Obama’s policies say that specifically.
- We jointly decide what will be considered as proof.
- I have final say-so over whether your claims are specific enough to qualify.
Here are the rules:
- You cannot search the Internet or conspire with a friend to complete this exercise. Of course, I will not know you have done this. However you will have only cheated yourself, because you’ll then know you have been supporting a person, without exactly knowing why, who will assume one of the most powerful positions on Earth.
- Responses must be in your own words.
A Bonus:
As a bonus, if you actually have the confidence in your position to return the bet and offer me $1,000 of your cash for failed predictions, I’ll vote for Obama too.
I am serious about this and will make the bet for the first 2 people that respond adequately. I will put the money in a T. Rowe Price sponsored mutual fund on Election Day and will sign a legal contract that the money will be yours contingent on achievement of proposed changes in 10 months of Obama’s presidency and the requisite persistence of the changes for the duration of his presidency.
There are however, two potential “catches”:
- I will post the changes you naively believe will happen on my blog and will frequently post caustically sarcastic comments about how these changes are not happening and how adolescent and silly you were to believe them.
- Your earnings will be “taxed” on whatever the current aggregate is of federal income tax, state income tax, and all payroll taxes at the time of payout for MY tax bracket (currently, you would get about $580 of the $1,000). Regardless it’s still free money.
My prediction is that no one will accept this bet. Why? BecauseI think everyone's wild, impassioned support of Obama is skin deep and self-serving. You know in your own mind that you really don’t know that much about politics, economics, or national defense. You just pass on what you hear and read in magazines and the television.
My hidden goal here is an excercise in self-reflection. That is, I hope people will recognize their lack of specific knowledge about important issues and decide they really don’t know enough to vote. If you cannot articulate only 5 (out of the thousands of issues surrounding our nation’s political platform) ONLY 5 specific points that Obama will change, should you be voting him when his primary platform is change?
You know you’re not that confident in Obama. You know you don’t believe your Obama rhetoric. If you don’t take my bet, I’ll know you don’t either.
Of course, I could be wrong. This is your opportunity to stick it to me. Let’s make some bets!
5 comments:
Very articulate and well-written Jay and you did achieve your goal of self-reflection on my part. I cannot accept your challenge because you nailed it on the money when you said I don't know enough about politics, the economic crisis or health care reform or have any ideas myself on how to fix the problems that we encounter today to make this bet. (hence one of the many reasons I am not running for any political postitions... yet). ;)
I will, however, vote for Obama for a few reasons that I can actually articulate. McCain is a former cancer patient, a two time survivor of melanoma, a very aggressive cancer with a high recurrence rate and a very low 5 year survival rate. He has limited use of his arms, is 71 years old and has been a POW for 5 and a half years in the Vietnam war so has taken a beating that most people of his age haven't. I don't think it's too much to ask for to have a healthy, vigorous president of the USA who is not ATLEAST twice as likely to die in office or have health problems that would get in the way of running a country as another man of his age. Mind you, he is rapidly approaching 80, if voted in for a second term. And then, what does he go and do to make provisions for this factor? The answer is that he picked Sarah Palin as his vice president who can't answer a single question asked to her at a debate unless it has to do with alternate energy sources. News flash, there are other issues going on in our country as well.
God help this country to not look like the biggest joke in the foreign arena if something happens and she becomes president of the USA and Commander in Chief of our armed forces. So, I will vote for Obama/Biden to protect the country I love from a man who does not have enough sense to not insult arabs in the middle of a nationally televised debate and who made an impulsive and "for the wrong reasons" choice for his running mate. Can we take a chance that he may not do that again while in office on a decision that would have higher stakes and worse repercussions? (Although I can't think of much worse than Sarah Palin becoming our president.)
Either way, I don't think we are going to be seeing any major changes with either candidate in office in the next 10 months simply because with a country of this size and population, reform naturally takes a lot longer to occur. However, what's wrong with voting in a president who incites so much fervor and hope in the American people in a time when they could really use it? I mean when's the last time you drove down a street and saw a beautifully painted, colorful portrait tacked to a wall somewhere of Bush, or better yet, McCain? I see them all the time of Obama.
As one of the naïve, CEO-hating, magazine-parroting, self-serving assholes that plans to vote for “that one” I guess I’ll tepidly bite. First, I’ll pick at your lead-up to the proposal.
Now, I don’t know you, but based on your piece that has a considerable resemblance to a GOP talking points memo, I’d guess you’re voting for that ‘other’ one.
You said:
“rather they be CEOs making $10 million that democrats hate”
Sarcasm or not, could you come up with a more cliché generalization? I don’t want even get started down this rabbit trail but have you even heard of Warren Buffett?
“I don’t pity those making $15,000 – 20,000.”
You mean those people that Republicans hate? I apologize, I meant “that Republicans hate to see at the voting booth.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdNgMKPV9xQ
“It wasn’t long ago that I made about half that much.”
Yet, based on your tax-bracket, you’re living quite comfortably. Just a guess, but you sound like one of the over-privileged types who chose that previous lifestyle, shirking responsibility for a period of time simply because you COULD. You probably had an above-average education that you knew you could rely on at a point in the future when you decided to grow up. I would also guess you had/have parents that would be willing to financially support you had you gotten sick, injured, or in jail. You probably didn’t have any sick/disabled family members to care for. You probably didn’t have any debt or creditors to worry about because of previously mentioned assumed parental units. Stop your loathing of people who DIDN’T choose the 15-20k salary range for an adventurous period of pseudo-rebellion, but ended up in it and are desperately trying to work their way out while staying one foot ahead of bankruptcy and facing rising costs on virtually EVERYTHING. Not everyone grows up with the fortunate circumstances that you apparently have.
“Further, I also don’t pity those that live on government welfare in the ghetto. These folks are well taken care of.”
You make yourself and I sound like suckers for working jobs rather than living for free in the ghetto. I just can’t understand why more people aren’t trading in their jobs for a life of ease in the ghetto. Don’t get me wrong - I’m not defending some obvious generational patterns of apathy and self-entitlement in certain areas. However, I can’t help but notice that you had a figure ready for the number of people on food stamps. How about enlightening us on a percentage of people on welfare and how much they get? All I do is watch television and read magazines - and god knows there’s no information to be had there - so I don’t have a number at the ready myself.
Your apparent condescension to those that lack your good fortune reminds me of the comedy of Stephen Colbert who said on one occasion (paraphrased) “All America needs is more bootstrap-salesmen.” I would guess you don’t know too many poor people, because the few that I know don’t happily choose to be poor.
“Well I want to know what he will change because I think America is great as it is.”
Really? Have you spent ANY time abroad? Thanks to the current administration, America has earned a reputation for something strongly akin to imperialism. I mean, what else can you call invading a sovereign county under false pretenses? Thanks to Gitmo, Abu Ghirab, and the implicit condoning of torture by our administration, we have lost every smidgen of international goodwill that we might have had extended to us as a result of 9/11. We arrogantly cling to the idea that our country will always have the high ground, but we don’t have that. Granted, past administrations share blame for this, but I’d posit that Dubya has done far worse than other modern day presidents when it comes to making virtually every country hate our bleeping guts. No, I don’t think we should allow international opinion to shape our every decision, but when even our allies are giving us the finger, something’s gotta give. Our energy consumption is ridiculous. We will never be able to produce enough fossil fuels to meet our current demand. Until recently we were the world’s biggest polluter (China overtook us, in case you weren’t looking). Our education system is pitiful compared to other developed countries. Xenophobia is painfully apparent and appears to be worsening as the GOP in Congress guts immigration reform and beats the war-drums for a modern-day Crusades. I’m regularly reading headlines about people committing suicide because of the housing and economic woes. And this month, the government decided to buy a $700 billion tampon that would, in part, socialize major banks. I’m not sure what parallel universe you’re living in but please pass the crack pipe this way cause that must be awfully good shit you got there.
“You know in your own mind that you really don’t know that much about politics, economics, or national defense.”
I doubt few people making time to read your rant are experts on any of those topics, but sadly, it doesn’t take much knowledge of those subjects to claim a higher competency than the current president (or the Republican vying to succeed him). I know that tax cuts plus increased spending tend to result in a deficit and I know the difference between Sunni and Shia. There is plenty of video evidence to suggest that McCain isn’t well grounded on either topic.
“You just pass on what you hear and read in magazines and the television.”
So, if I’m to read the implicit allegation here that printed and broadcast mediums are relatively worthless, how are we to obtain knowledge? Osmosis? Superior genetics?
I’ll get to the point. I fully expect you to pick these apart/reject the changes that I hope and pray are made shortly after inauguration. I fully expect the GOP members in Congress and the Republican operatives in the media will do everything in their prayer to derail a Democratic president’s agenda (at least this one seems to have a firm grasp on his zipper), and I wouldn’t completely ignore the rumors that Dubya would stoop to igniting a distracting conflict with Iran in order to hamstring an Obama administration.
My anticipated changes, in order of likelihood that I assigned:
1. Raise the national fuel mpg standard. I am not aware of what it is currently; I believe it’s in the low 20’s. I expect an Obama administration will raise it by approximately 5mpg. The potential positive results should be obvious enough: reduced oil consumption and reduced carbon emissions.
2. In connection with No. 1, but I believe a change worthy to list separately I expect an Obama administration to provide subsidies/other financial incentives to motor companies that require research/new equipment for the manufacture of more efficient vehicles and alternate energy vehicles. The positive results that this change could bring include job creation, or at the very least a decline/hault to the layoffs currently taking place in the industry.
3. Raise taxes on upper class –There is a tandem proposed tax-break for middle class citizens that is often mentioned as well, but I’ll focus on the tax increase since that’s all the Republicans want to talk about. A positive effect would include a move towards balancing the budget, or at least reducing the deficit, thereby reducing the amount of money we’re borrowing from countries like China – not exactly our closest buddies. Other potential effects could include actually FUNDING No Child Left Behind or improving infrastructure such as the New Orleans levee system. I’m fully aware that a tax increase may not affect me now because of my income, but it will likely affect me on capital gains. This doesn’t cause me much sleep loss. I’m pretty sure you make substantially more than I but I’m already ahead, I’ll stay ahead, and I’d rather pay a few bucks extra in taxes that I will likely never miss than continue to watch education suffer and the levees leak when a storm merely passes by a few hundred miles to the south. I wasn’t always of this mind. As recently as 2004, I thought the ‘trickle-down effect’ had at least some credibility. Another 4 years of that crap, and hearing out Mr. Buffett helped me to consider otherwise. It didn’t help watching a smug $Mill Romney try to explain ‘trickle down’ economics while denying he had illegal immigrants tending to one of his many mansions.
4. Reduce size of Gitmo – I expect an Obama administration to bring to trial and release at least a handful of those incarcerated. I additionally expect an independent investigation of alleged torture practices combined with a released statement/conference where the administration forcefully condemns torture. The direct effects from such actions will be difficult/impossible to measure, especially in the short-run, but I would expect a softening of international resentment towards us. It would – and should be – the first of many steps towards reconciliation with the international community.
5. Increased funding of faith-based initiatives – If there’s one thing that’s been apparent from Obama’s words and actions, it is his commitment to his faith and the role that should play in helping the community. I don’t think I can get specific on this one, and I don’t think I should have to. The GOP attempted to present a false argument that Obama would reduce funding to faith-based initiatives in hopes of rallying their religious “right” base (an oxymoron if there ever was one). I argue that he will increase them. Specifics shouldn’t be necessary if the previous argument was the opposite. I’ll admit I don’t know a lot about said initiatives, but I would assume that potential positive effects include: more homeless people fed and more after-school programs for troubled kids. If you want that quantified better, find someone with a crystal ball. I’ll accept any improvement and will continue to demand more if feasible.
Another change that I would expect in the early days of an Obama administration is improved communications with Iran and/or North Korea. Maybe not with Obama himself flying over but I expect dignitaries much higher up than previous. It seems this is McCain’s favorite whipping boy but with all McCain’s constant claims of “I know how to win wars,” I’ve yet to hear him describe himself as having any knowledge on diplomacy. I don’t believe that these communications will bring about some kind of miraculous change of heart in either country’s government mentioned, but I think it will put us in a better bargaining position at the U.N. when it comes time for the next round of sanctions. Again, improved international relations.
With that said, I’m signing off. Not sure if I’ll have time to follow up but will try to keep this on my radar. In the highly implausible scenario that you accept the items I listed above with minimal clarification/modification, and in the not as implausible scenario that the political stars align and those changes become reality, you can direct whatever sum of money you’re offering to the United Way of Greater New Orleans Area.
http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=4626
They could use your money more than I.
racism is waning and an obvious neochristianfundamentalist movement has been been thwarted from gaining representation as high up as the vice presidency. that's change i want. i don't want change like that guy on the bike though. you'd think he would have dug into his trust fund a bit and offered you up that dollar; you not having a bike and all. anyhow, make that check payable to Jason Tyler Jacobus. ps- Have you seen my DVD player?
So is there proof of money being put into Escrow yet??
So are you going to put up or shut up? I take it from your complete lack of response that you were sufficiently confident in your opinion that all Obama supporters were mindless, brainwashed fools and that you had no intention of keeping your word. I guess I shouldn't be surprised; you were doing a convincing job of impersonating Sean Hannity, another "trustworthy," self-satisfied blowhard like yourself.
With a little over a month into the new presidency, the Obama administration has already showed promising progress on the changes that I predicted. Maybe I'm naive to believe that the White House will convince the Republicans to play nice as they rally behind the likes of Rush Limbaugh, but I believe it's fair to say that Obama has accomplished more in 5 weeks than Bush accomplished in any 5 years of his presidency. But don't take my word for it, how about you list 5 things that Bush did during his entire 8 year reign and how they benefited the country.
So are you putting aside the money or not? It's time that you proved you're not another dickless mouthpiece for the GOP.
Post a Comment